Chris Thomas 5 Star Pick 3 Contest – 2011 Recap

The Chris Thomas 5 Star Pick 3 Handicapping Contest“ALWAYS PROTECT YOUR UNIT”

After being run on our own for the past few years, the 4 main participants of the 5-Star contest had done the unthinkable and all managed to end the 2010 Season with a win rate over 60% against the spread….Last year we opened up the contest to the TBFL owners and 4 more degenerates joined the fray for our first publicly documented season….After 12 Weeks of NFL action….things were looking good for a repeat of the previous season’s success….and then we hit the wall….

After Week 12 we had mounted an incredible season with 4 players having win rates over 60%….2 more teams in the black on the year….and the final 2 teams were literally 1 loss into the red with 5 weeks to go….Then ‘Unlucky Week 13‘ put the smack down….Our players went a combined 8-16….It was the worst weekend in the history of running the 5-Star contest giving back $1,040….over half the accumulated bank roll on the season….

Shawn was the leader at that point, but had the worst record closing out the year at 2-10 over the last 4 weeks to tie for last place with a 52.94% win rate and -$210….

Kevin was the only player to not make picks in the final week and ends up closing out a vig losing .500 as a result….A perfect Week 17 may have been enough to win it all…but instead he ties for last with -$210….

Player W L P Win % $$
Shawn 27 24 0 52.94% ($210)
Kevin 26 23 2 52.94% ($210)

Burgess closed out tied for the best winning record in the final weeks at 6-4-2….including a perfect 3-0 in Week 17….He manages to catch Hunter who closed out at .500….and both end the season tied in the red by 1 game at -$110….

Player W L P Win % $$
Hunter 27 23 1 53.92% ($110)
Burgess 26 22 3 53.92% ($110)

Shannon joined the .500 club to close out the year as 1 of only 2 teams to not get a single PUSH on the season….the ½ point edge from a single PUSH would have been enough to end in the black….but instead he ends at 54.90% and -$10….

Player W L P Win % $$
Shannon 28 23 0 54.90% ($10)

Miller had been battling for the contest lead through much of the early season….but after the weekend of disgrace….he could finish no better than losing the vig each week at .500 and ends exactly on the magic winning record of 28-22-1….55.88% and .9 units in the black at +$90….

Player W L P Win % $$
Miller 28 22 1 55.88% $90

Gasper and Riley had also battled for the lead through the course of the year and both did manage winning records over the last 4 weeks….Gasper at 7-5-0 and Riley a ½ game back at 6-5-1….Both end tied with the exact same record at 56.86% and +$190….

Player W L P Win % $$
Gasper 28 21 2 56.86% $190
Riley 28 21 2 56.86% $190

Overall the group ended up at 218-179-11 for a Win Rate of 54.78% and -$180….just 2 wins away from the black….One of the features we tracked this year was a complete breakdown of how the players did playing with different wagers through the season….

The Houston Texans were the source of the majority of the success in 2011….Our players used them 22 times with a season high Win rate of 81.82% and +$1,180 on the year….Rounding out the Top-5 Winners were the Saints (12-3, 80.00%, +$750), Bears (13-4-1, 75.00%, +$720), Patriots (19-9, 67.86%, +$720), and Packers (21-11, 65.63%, +$680)….

The Biggest Loser on the season was the -$770 hit taken from losing all 7 wagers placed on the Kansas City Chiefs….Rounding out the Top-5 Losers were the Buccaneers (2-8, 20.00%, -$700), Falcons (6-11-1, 36.11%, -$680), The Over….which was also the most used with 42 wagers….(20-22, 47.62%, -$680), and the Cowboys (1-5-2, 25.00%, -$480)….

Full chart provided below:

Team Win Lose Push Total
Win% $$
ARI 3 2 5 60.00% $50
ATL 6 11 1 18 36.11% ($680)
BAL 9 10 19 47.37% ($290)
BUF 6 9 2 17 41.18% ($470)
CAR 5 5 10 50.00% ($100)
CHI 13 4 1 18 75.00% $720
CIN 5 3 8 62.50% $120
CLE 1 1 0.00% ($110)
DAL 1 5 2 8 25.00% ($480)
DEN 3 2 5 60.00% $50
DET 7 6 1 14 53.57% ($40)
GB 21 11 32 65.63% $680
HOU 18 4 22 81.82% $1,180
IND 1 1 0.00% ($110)
JAX 1 1 2 50.00% ($20)
KC 7 7 0.00% ($770)
MIA 2 2 0.00% ($220)
MIN 3 1 4 75.00% $160
NE 19 9 28 67.86% $720
NO 12 3 15 80.00% $750
NYG 7 3 1 11 68.18% $290
NYJ 4 5 9 44.44% ($190)
OAK 6 3 9 66.67% $210
PHI 3 3 6 50.00% ($60)
PIT 12 9 21 57.14% $90
SD 5 3 8 62.50% $120
SEA 1 2 3 33.33% ($130)
SF 12 5 2 19 68.42% $510
STL 4 4 0.00% ($440)
TB 2 8 10 20.00% ($700)
TEN 4 3 1 8 56.25% $20
WAS 7 5 12 58.33% $80
OVER 20 22 42 47.62% ($620)
UNDER 1 2 3 33.33% ($130)
NCAA 2 5 7 28.57% ($370)
218 179 11 408 54.78% ($180)

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