Statistically Speaking Bonus – Midpoint Draft Review

A special Mid-Season breakdown of who is earning their keep and who is making their owners weep from the 2011 TBFL Draft….full breakdown follows….

As we approached the half way point of the season, I was reviewing the 2011 TBFL Draft page to see where some potential keepers may lie….As I was scanning the page I realized they have the current Fantasy Point totals for each player listed next to their names and was quite shocked by some of the discrepancies in each round….In an attempt to help show that there is real value to be found at every stage of the draft, here are the Best and Bust players for each round:

BEST

PickPlayer (Keeper in BOLD)TeamPTS
1.06Calvin JohnsonXFA165
2.12Drew BreesMNY191
3.04Aaron RodgersAND208
4.03Wes WelkerRNT164
5.05Eli ManningBBA128
6.08Fred JacksonBBA143
7.11Ahmad BradshawXFA106
8.09Matthew StaffordAND152
9.06Mike WallaceXFA135
10.03Cam NewtonBBA191
11.10Josh FreemanBAT122
12.04Jimmy GrahamHUR139
13.02Colt McCoyPLY100
14.07Eric DeckerXFA74
15.06Detroit LionsXFA73
16.02Mason CrosbyWAR70
17.10Darren SprolesBAT124
18.09Andy DaltonAND92
Average Points132
BUST
Pick Player (Keeper in BOLD) Team PTS
1.12 Rashard Mendenhall PLY 56
2.01 Knowshon Moreno PLY 25
3.02 Reggie Bush MNY 50
4.02 Peyton Manning HUS 0
5.12 Ryan Grant PLY 29
6.01 Ronnie Brown MNY 1
7.01 Lee Evans AND 6
8.10 Jamaal Charles BAT 17
9.01 LaRod Stephens-Howling AND 18
10.04 Earl Bennet RNT 4
11.02 Rashad Jennings HUR 0
12.11 Ryan Torain WAR 21
13.10 Jerome Harrison WAR 3
14.10 Vince Young RNT (1)
15.12 Jake Locker PLY 0
16.01 Shane Vereen PLY 0
17.01 Ryan Williams WAR 0
18.07 Matt Flynn XFA (1)
Average Points 13

These are some of the things I noticed while reviewing the numbers:

After 7 Weeks, the Best player in each round on Average is 119 points better than the Bust player in that round….that’s 17 points PER GAME for players taken in the SAME ROUND!

9 of the Best players were keepers….6 of the Bust players were keepers….and in 4 of the rounds (8,11,12,14) both were keepers….

In 9 rounds, the Bust player was taken with either the 1st or 2nd pick in the round….

In the 7 rounds where there was no keeper, the Bust player was selected BEFORE the Best player 5 times….

The Bust pick of the round was taken directly in front of the Best pick of the round 2 times (Peyton at 4.02 vs Welker at 4.03, Vereen at 16.01 vs Crosby at 16.02)….

Playground Legends went back-to-back with Bust picks 2 times (1.12-2.01, 15.12-16.01)….hit Bust picks in 3 of the first 5 rounds….and is still in 2nd place in the Storm Division….

Knowshon Moreno was so big a Bust at pick #13 that other than Peyton Manning’s 0 at pick #38, you have to get to Ronnie Brown at pick #61 to find a player with fewer points….that is 4 full rounds of players….

Darren Sproles was such a steal at pick #202….you have to go up 5 rounds to pick #140 to find a player with more points (Michael Vick)….

After all the jockeying for draft positions at the top of the first round and suffering over which of those top 5 guys to take, the Best player went at 1.06 right in the middle of the round….

After all the jockeying for draft positions at the end of the first round to get the better picks at the top of the 2nd….the Best player was the last selection in the 2nd round….

4 of the top 6 Busts are running backs whose names start with ‘R’ (Rashard, Reggie, Ryan, and Ronnie)….

Fudgie Whales and UO Grandmasters had no Best picks and no Bust picks….Bubba Army had 3 Best picks with no Busts….Husslers had 1 Bust pick with no Best picks….

Best to Bust Ratio
Team Bests Busts %
BBA 3 100.00%
XFA 5 1 83.33%
BAT 2 1 66.67%
AND 3 2 60.00%
HUR 1 1 50.00%
MNY 1 2 33.33%
RNT 1 2 33.33%
WAR 1 3 25.00%
PLY 1 5 16.67%
HUS 1 0.00%
FUD 0.00%
UOG 0.00%

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