Okay…I admit it…Statistically Speaking sort of fell apart after Week 12 in 2012…ending a nice run of uninterrupted posts…I want to get things off to a good clean start for 2013 so I am bringing back one of the most popular posts from last year…a game of BAT-tleship…where we grade the 4-Time Fantasy Bowl Champion Bay Area Thrashers predictions of the year to come made just after the 2012 Draft which you can find HERE…Each prediction (with minor paraphrasing and formatting corrections) will be examined and then graded as either :
A *HIT*
or
A *MISS*
Here we go…
THE DRAFT
Tom Brady will be this year’s best QB and top point earner!
*MISS* But only by a cunt hair…TDQBITU was 4th in Yardage (4543) & 4th in Passing Touchdowns (32)… 10 fewer INT’s (8) and 3 more Rushing Touchdowns (4) still left him in 2nd place by 11 points (7 tenths of a point-per-game) on the season (364 v 375) to the year’s best QB – Drew Brees…Of course he did lead Thrashers to their 4th Fantasy Bowl Trophy…
This year’s First Round Busts (For the purpose of this article, a First Round Bust is a player who failed to score at least 175 points) will include:
Matt Forte due to other team options:
*MISS* Forte ended the season at 192 points and the 11th highest scoring Running Back in the league…tail end of the RB1’s…He finished the year with powerful production in the Playoff weeks…
Darren McFadden due to injuries:
*HIT* McFadden missed 4 games due to injuries…including the all important Gauntlet Weeks….finally ending at 138 points and the 24th highest scoring Running Back…behind undrafted Rookie Joique Bell…
Steven Jackson because he’s too old and has not been first round worthy since 2006:
*HIT* Jackson finished close to the established 175 point threshold at 172…But his 990 rushing yards and 31 receptions were his lowest totals since entering the league in 2004 (673 & 19)…Good enough for only the 23rd best Running Back in points-per-game (11.5)…
Hakeem Nicks due to not even being the best receiver on his team:
*HIT* At 135 points Nicks was not even the 2nd best receiver on his team…finishing behind Victor Cruz and Martellus Bennett…He had a monster 35 points in Week 2…then missed the next 3 games to injury…and averaged under 10 points-per-game for the rest of the season…finishing outside the Top 60 receivers on the year…
Going back over the last 6 seasons…I discover some alarming trends, including one that will make RnT VERY unhappy!!! Pick 1.05 has been a bust EVERY season since 2006 – This year’s pick 1.05 and latest addition to this year’s first round bust list is Chris Johnson. He was a borderline bust player for me anyway; simply because I just don’t like him…but now…well, history is not on his side:
*MISS* and a *HIT* CJ28 managed to play every game in 2012 and finished out of the Bust zone with 189 points…just 1 point outside of the Top 12 Running Backs on the year…but he underproduced for the 1st 3 weeks of the season…managing only 17 total points while playing for Runs N Throses…Shawn…being VERY unhappy…then traded him to Armed N Dangerous who went on to win the Storm Division…
It’s been 4 years since PGL has changed his name, and he has had a first round bust in 3 out of the last 4 years….and as stated above, I am betting on 4 out of the last 5!
*HIT* Actually they changed their name in 2007…5 years ago from the date of the post…but as stated above…Hakeem Nicks was the biggest Bust of the First Round…
Isaiah Pead will go down as the worst draft pick of all time!
*HIT* I’m too lazy to check previous drafts for a worse pick in the 1st 5 rounds…But for comparison…C.J. Spiller was taken 5 picks after Pead and outscored him by 220 points…
This year’s best chance at getting last year’s Darren Sproles….Felix Jones and Pierre Thomas (both one injury away from being the man again)
*MISS* and *MISS* DeMarco Murray missed 6 games starting in front of Jones…and Darren Sproles missed 3 games ahead of Thomas…but neither one managed to come near the 200+ point total of Sproles 2011 outing…Best late Draft output actually went to James Jones with 204 points in the 15th Round…
NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS
QB numbers will come back down to earth this season.
*HIT* I think…I’m pretty sure Kev was referring to the astronomical scores put up by the Top 4 QB’s in 2011 that averaged 410.5 points on the year or 27.38 points-per-game…2012 saw the Top 4 average fall 50 points to 360.5 or 24.05 per game…But if we go off of all the QB1’s on the year…the Top 12 QB’s averaged 332 points in 2011 vs 330.75 in 2012…No real fall there…Of course he could also have meant…literally…”Down to Earth” and still been correct as the Top 12 QB’s ran the ball 581 times in 2012 vs only 491 carries in 2011…
Rookie QBs will come back to earth as well…
*MISS* There were 12 Rookie QB’s in 2011…4 never touched a ball (Enderle, Stanzi, Mallet, McElroy)…4 had limited action with under 300 snaps (Taylor 2, Kaepernick 7, Locker 74, Yates 144)…Leaving us 4 real starters in Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton, and Newton…a group that averaged (inflated by Cam’s monster season) 226 points…2752 yards…and 19.8 Touchdowns…
Cam’s success encouraged teams to trust more Rookie QB’s rostering 14 in 2012…5 never touched a ball (A. Davis, D. Davis, Moore, Harnish, Coleman)…4 had limited action with under 300 snaps (Osweiler 5, Cousins 51, Lindley 175, Foles 275)…Leaving us 5 real starters in Weeden, Tannehill, Wilson, Luck, and Griffin…that 2012 group averaged 42 points better than 2011 with 268…569 yards better with 3321…and almost 2 Touchdowns better with 21.6…
and RGIII will not put up similar numbers to Cam Newton…
*MISS* Was not sure if this was a RG3 to Cam’11 or Cam’12 comparison…but see the chart…for 2012 PPG were near identical with an edge to RG3…Cam had more passing yardage but only due to having 80 more attempts (An argument could be made that if the Panthers had a Running Back the quality of Morris…Newton would not have had to throw as often and as deep making his numbers look even more like Griffin’s)…RG3 was more efficient than Cam’11 or Cam’12 with 67% Completions, 8.3 yards per attempt, a 4.0 Touchdown to Interception ratio, and 104.2 QB Rating…Cam is seen to be special for his ground game…but RG3 had more rushing yards and yards per carry than Cam’11 or Cam’12…Teams figured out how to better keep big running QB’s out of the endzone after watching tape on Cam’11…and used that to cut down ground scores for both of these guys…
|
Cam’11 |
Cam’12 |
RG3’12 |
|
|
Points |
400 |
349 |
329 |
|
P/P/G |
26.7 |
23.3 |
23.5 |
|
Pass Yds |
3893 |
3621 |
3111 |
|
Comp |
295 |
264 |
250 |
|
Att |
492 |
452 |
376 |
|
Comp % |
66.1 |
58.4 |
66.5 |
|
Yds/Comp |
13.2 |
13.7 |
12.4 |
|
Yds/Att |
7.9 |
8.0 |
8.3 |
|
Pass TDs |
20 |
19 |
20 |
|
INTs |
16 |
11 |
5 |
|
TD/INT |
1.3 |
1.7 |
4.0 |
|
Rush Yds |
677 |
707 |
770 |
|
Yds/Rush |
5.7 |
5.9 |
6.9 |
|
Rush TDs |
14 |
8 |
6 |
|
QB Rating |
90.1 |
88.0 |
104.2 |
Cam Newton will not put up Cam Newton stats like he did a year ago…
*HIT* The numbers are still similar…actually improving in some areas…but come on…Cam’11 was an anomaly …it would be hard for anyone to hit that ceiling again…
Rushing TDs will be cut in half…
*HIT* 8…7…Close enough
and People will be discussing his lack of passing ability…
*HIT* I guess…I’m sure someone talked about it…QB Rating did go down…but 2nd half of the season showed great improvement over the 1st half…
He will still be worth a 7th round pick…
*HIT* Best player in the 7th round…but close because Luck went in the 7th too…
RGIII will not be worth a 4th round pick!
*MISS* Rivers (243), Eli (248), Romo (327), Peyton (337), and Ryan (339) were all taken within 10 picks of RG3 and he finished in the top end of that pack…
There will be 10 QB changes made by the end of the season after Week 1 starters are named.
*HIT* This was actually difficult to track down…but ultimately 47 different Quarterbacks started for their teams in 2012…and none of them were named Tim Tebow…Some quick simple math means at least 15 “changes” were made from the starting 32…20 teams managed to ride 1 QB for 16 games…while Arizona made the most personnel changes with 4 different starters (Skelton, Kolb, Lindley, Hoyer)…
Ryan Mathews will miss at least 5 games….
*MISS* Matthews missed only 3 games in 2012 (Weeks 1, 2, and 16)…although he did show up on the Injury Report 6 times…playing all 3 games listed as Probable…
If not for injury, he would have been a first round pick for the third straight year.
*MISS* Urmm…He was drafted in the 4th round in 2011…and missed only 1 game that year…
He has yet to score double digit rushing TDs in his first two years, this will be year 3.
*HIT* 1 Touchdown…1…THAT is why he won’t go near the 1st round this year…
Trent Richardson will not finish in the top ten for RBs…maybe not even top 15!
*MISS* Finished #6 Overall in points with 239…#7 by points-per-game with 15.9…#4 in Receptions with 51…and tied for #2 in Touchdowns with 12…
Michael Turner will not set a career high in receptions. He would only need 18 to do it!
*MISS* Turner managed to squeeze in 4 receptions in the last game to end on 19 for the season…indeed his new career high…
Peyton Manning will be a top 8 QB this season!
*HIT* After a year of rest…Peyton comes back as the #6 Quarterback in 2012 with 337 points…also his 6th consecutive played season with 4000+ yards passing…
The Broncos will not have a winning record.
*MISS* And by a mile…The Broncos tied the Falcons for the best record in the league at 13-3…with one of those losses coming to the Falcons in Week 2…How do you pick Peyton to do well and then say his team will do poorly?
List of starters who will not be with their teams next season!
Frank Gore *MISS*
Fred Jackson *MISS*
Mark Sanchez *MISS*
Willis McGahee *HIT*
Steven Jackson *HIT*
Beanie Wells *HIT*
Reggie Bush *HIT*
Michael Vick *MISS*
Matt Cassel *HIT*
Alex Smith *HIT*
Greg Jennings *HIT*
Dwayne Bowe *HIT*
Wes Welker *HIT*
9-4 for those….Very Nice!
I see a New England – Green Bay Super Bowl. New England for the win!
*MISS* But damn close…Green Bay missed by 2 games…losing by 14 to the ultimate NFC Champion 49ers…New England missed by 1 game…losing by 15 to the Superbowl Champion Ravens…
TBFL TEAM ROSTERS
Miller will soon learn that real life success does not translate into fantasy success and he will know that Big Ben is not a strong fantasy starter.
*MISS* Big Ben started the 1st 3 games for AND…averaging the 3rd highest points-per-game at 25.0…then he was traded in a package to Warriors for Drew Brees…Before ultimately getting hurt in Week 10 he was still the #10 QB in points-per-game with 20.5…
Miller will also learn not to keep a St. Louis kicker (as a second kicker) no matter how long of FGs he is hitting in practice!
*HIT* Greg Zuerlein started the year on fire…hitting the longest FG ever at Soldier Field (56yds) in Week 3…breaking a 14 year old team record (58yds) in Week 4…only to break it again 21 minutes later (60yds)…But after that he missed 3 tries against the Dolphins in Week 6…and suffered as the Rams finished 24th in scoring opportunities for kickers…Miller finally cut him in Week 8 where he remained on the Free Agent Wire…
Fudgie has finally moved on from Flacco and now has Rodgers. He will see the difference and enjoy the stats, but learn that not even Rodgers can help him win 6 games this year.
*MISS* Fudgie Whales ended the 2012 Season right at 6 wins…and then ripped off 2 more wins with the Android to secure their first ever Empire Cup and the 1st Draft Pick in 2013…
Hurricanes is loaded again, and will have to rely on Joe Flacco for at least 4 games this season…
*MISS* He did have Flacco for 4 weeks…but he spent all 4 on the Hurricanes bench watching Michael Vick play before being traded to Husslers…Vick did miss all games after Week 10…but Hurricanes had Luck as the starter at that point…
In case you missed it…Vick will miss 4 games this year…
*HIT*
However, he still has enough firepower to win at least 4 of those games…
*MISS* After Vick went down…Hurricanes not only won but was Team of the Week for 3 games…but he lost to Team of the Week X-Factor in Week 12…Then lost his TBFL Playoff game to Money Inc…
and win division title for the 3rd straight season.
*MISS* A nice 3-0 start to the season had a hiccup with an 0-4 run in Weeks 4-7…He then had a run of 4 straight Team of the Weeks before losing again to the ultimate Bucs Division Champs X-Factor…
Gronk will have another great season this year…
*HIT* 183 points was good enough to be the 30th best Receiver in 2012…
but he will be out scored by not one but two other TEs…
*HIT* Actually outscored by 4 (Gonzo, Witten, Graham, Heath)
in Jimmy Graham…
*HIT*
and Aaron Hernandez. You heard me!!!
*MISS* And unlikely to ever outscore Gronk again other than in felony convictions…
Hustlers now have the best cheerleader picture! Those cheeks say it all. Those other cheeks are not too bad either! Two cheeks beat a great set of abs any day!!!
*HIT* I guess…for now…things are brewing for 2013…
Money Inc. will not repeat as League Champion…
*HIT* So close to being the first back-to-back winner though…
In fact, he will not even make the playoffs…
*MISS* Fantasy Bowl Champion to Fantasy Bowl Runner Up…
He will join AnD and UO as the only two teams in the last 7 years to win the league title and not return to the playoffs the following season!
*MISS*
I just sunk his battle ship and season in one stroke!
*HIT* Ultimately yes as Thrashers got their revenge in the Rematch Bowl…
PGL will not win the division…
*HIT* Dead last…
will not make the playoffs…
*HIT* Was in Wildcard potential before dropping 3 straight Gauntlet Weeks…
will not collect $200 for passing GO!
*HIT* Since changing their name to Playground Legends in 2007…they have won a total of $50 in awards of any type (2 TOTW awards in 2010)…
However, I do seriously believe that he does now know that this is a PPR League. However, I am not convinced he knows what PPR actually stands for and their draft day selections of Austin (43), Jones (52), Simpson (50) Murray (26) and Turner (Career high 17) receptions will attest!
*HIT* I think…all of the named players except for Simpson did outpace those previous reception numbers…but since it was based on Draft Day rosters…I compared every teams Draft Roster to total receptions by those players on the year…Danny was next to last with 405 Drafted Receptions…but the Fantasy Bowl teams were also the 3rd lowest (BAT 439) and lowest (MNY 359) on the list…
|
TEAM |
REC |
TEAM |
REC |
|
HUR |
656 |
AND |
506 |
|
BBA |
646 |
UOG |
500 |
|
HUS |
635 |
WAR |
484 |
|
XFA |
560 |
BAT |
439 |
|
FUD |
547 |
PGL |
405 |
|
RNT |
545 |
MNY |
359 |
Oh but PGL does lead the league in backup running backs on his roster at 5! Taking second place in this category is RnT who has 4!
*HIT*
RnT does not make the playoffs.
*HIT* Throsers starting day roster seemed solid enough…but after facing the Team of the Week 3 times in a row…then falling to Chump of the Week in Week 5…Shawn threw on his GM hat and traded away talent for future considerations…
Bay Area Thrashers will hold the record for most playoff appearances in a row at 10. He now shares the record at 9 with RnT.
*HIT* Team of the Decade +2…
Money Inc will have to have Cruz teach his team some Salsa Lessons as his WRs need a lot of work!
*HIT* As stated above…he drafted the fewest receptions of any team…
X-Factor will be one QB away from a playoff spot!
*MISS* RG3 was that one QB afterall…
UO has two great ones!!! Oh so does Warriors and even Bubba!
*HIT* Not really a prediction..but what the hell…I’m almost done with this thing…
DIVISION PREDICTIONS
Buccaneers Division – Will finally win a League Championship for the first time since 2004
*MISS* #1 and #2 Seeds in the 2012 Playoffs both lose at home in the Divisional Round…
Hurricanes
Warriors
X-Factor
RnT
*MISS* 0 for 4
Storm Division
Bay Area Thrashers
Armed and Dangerous
UO Grandmasters
Playground Legends
*MISS* 1 for 4…But a Week 9 victory over your rival would have done it for you…
Bandit Division
Bubba Army
Hustlers
Money Inc.
Fudgie Whales
*MISS* 0 for 4…and you misspelled HUSSLERS…
Only one team in the Bandit Division will have a winning record! Think I am being mean? The Bandit Division has only once had two teams with winning records in the last 6 years!
*HIT* And ouch…
Here is Miller’s yearly props…he is 15-7 regular season against me life time! 0-2 in the playoffs when it counts the most!
*HIT* Now 16-8…and 0-3 where it counts the most…
Hurricanes will be the favorite again to win it all. However he would rather not face BBA as he is 0-3 regular season and 0-1 in the playoffs! I am sure I just put a big bulls eye on myself for that one. But hey, I am here to report the stats and make the predictions!
*HIT* You put BBA in your post…but the records quoted are actually for Hurricanes facing BAT…either way…both teams beat Hurricanes last year (BAT Week 4 123-105, BBA Week 7 129-113)…
Speaking of bulls eyes, PGL has not had a winning record since 2006, and that streak will continue.
*HIT* A predicted 10 win season became the mirror opposite after the 10th loss was earned in the Empire Cup game…
Note to all…don’t make a big brash start of the year announcement before I do my thing here…you are just asking for some backlash!!!
*HIT* Hell I wait till the following year to even touch this thing…
Send spelling and all grammar errors to www.kissmyassthistooktwohourstoresearchandcomeupwith.com! 😛
*MISS* 2 hours?!? Pfft…this took me an entire week of lunch breaks…
Thank you all and onto another great year for you all! And hopefully another free TBFL fantasy football season for me!! As always, I thank you all for your yearly contributions!!! 😀
*HIT* Another Trophy and another entry paid by prize money for Thrashers…
46 HITS and 32 MISSES…This year’s .590 success rate is an improvement on the previous year…and so was the final outcome as Thrasher went from Fantasy Bowl Runner Up to Fantasy Bowl Champion…
Is anyone else going to step up with Bold Predictions this year?
Commish