Statistically Speaking – Second Season Scenario Special

Statistically Speaking

With Thanksgiving travel…and Black Friday deals to sort through…and early Thursday games…and Family who won’t leave me the hell alone…I am getting out the important part of this week’s post…The Playoff Scenarios…Week 12 Player-Team-Chump of the Week awards will be combined into next week’s post…Happy Thanksgiving everybody…

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Playoffs

If the Playoffs started today:

#1 Seed - HUR (10-2-0) - Div Champion (Locked into #1 Seed)
#2 Seed - BAT  (8-4-0) - Div Champion (Guaranteed Playoffs)
#3 Seed - BBA  (6-3-3) - Div Champion (By .750 H2H over FUD)
#4 Seed - RNT  (7-4-1) - Wildcard (By .750 H2H vs AND & FUD)
#5 Seed - AND  (7-4-1) - Wildcard (By H2H Win over FUD) (Guaranteed Playoffs)
#6 Seed - FUD  (6-3-3) - Wildcard

On the Bubble:

PLA (6-5-1) (3-1-1) (By Div Record over MNY)
MNY (6-5-1) (2-2-1)

Hurricanes had already locked up the Buccaneer Division title…but they have now locked up the #1 Seed position as well with their Week 12 victory…that’s the easy stuff…

All…those…fucking…Ties…To clarify things below…A Tie is considered ½ of a win and ½ of a loss…so yes…a 6-3-3 record is exactly the same as a 7-4-1 record…both are technically 7½-4½ or a .625 Win Percentage…

With the Head-2-Head loss to Armed N Dangerous…Thrashers falls to only a ½ game lead in the Storm Division race…They still control their own destiny and can hold the title with a Win over the Yo-Yo that is Playground Legends…Armed N Dangerous will have to finish off Eric and get help from Danny to win the Division by a ½ game…The Tie Fest in the Bandit Division has made it so no bubble team can currently reach 8 Wins…This means Thrashers is guaranteed a Playoff Slot and can finish no worse than the last Wildcard…Armed N Dangerous has Head-2-Head tiebreaks over BBA, FUD, PLA, and MNY and is therefore also guaranteed a Playoff Slot…

In the statistical anomaly that is the Bandit Division…Bubba Army STILL sits deadlocked with Fudgie Whales for the 3rd straight week…The Army control their own destiny as a WIN over Husslers would lock up the Twilight Zone title for them at 8½ Wins…If The Army falls…the door is open for the winner of the FUD/MNY game to take the crown…Whales would win it with a WIN over Money Inc with 8½ Wins…A loss by FUD means they cannot make the Playoffs…it would create a 3 way tie at 7½ Wins with MNY winning the Division on .625 Head-2-Head Record among the tied teams…BBA would still be ahead of FUD for Wildcard Tiebreaks by Head-2-Head results…If any of these teams Tie again…[loads round in the chamber]…

If BBA and FUD Both Lose:

MNY (7-5-1) .576 (2-1-1) .625 (By H2H Record)
BBA (6-4-3) .576 (1-1-2) .375 (By .750 H2H over FUD)
FUD (6-4-3) .576 (1-1-2) .375

Wildcards

Here is where we go sort of Stream of Consciousness as I work out the tiebreaks…

Currently all 3 Wildcard Teams sit tied at 7½ Wins…Runs N Throses takes the #3 Seed by virtue of a .750 Head-2-Head record among the tied teams…Armed N Dangerous takes the #4 Seed by direct Head-2-Head win over Fudgie Whales in Week 8…

RNT (7-4-1) .625 (1-0-1) .750 (by H2H Record)
AND (7-4-1) .625 (1-1-0) .500 (By H2H WIN over FUD)
FUD (6-3-3) .625 (0-1-1) .250

All of these teams can guarantee a playoff slot with a victory in Week 13 to reach 8½ Wins…Any of them losing (Or BBA losing) opens up tie break scenarios at 7½ Wins for PLA and MNY to jump in…PLA and MNY did not play each other Head-2-Head this season and currently PLA has a better Division Record…

Head-2-Head Scenarios

A 7½ Win Playground Legends team can get in with a Bandit Division stumble…

Loses to  AND (By .750 H2H Record)
Loses to  RNT (By Week 2 H2H Win)
Wins Over BBA (By Week 4 H2H Win)
Wins Over MNY (By Division Record)
(A 7½ Win FUD would lose to either BBA or MNY by Division Standing)

A 7½ Win Bubba Army loses the Division to either MNY or FUD…and can be eliminated from the Playoffs by a 7½ Win PLA…

A 7½ Win Money Inc team either Wins the Division (BBA Loss)…or replaces FUD in the current standings with a seed advantage on AND…

Loses to RNT (By Week 4 H2H Win)
Wins Over AND (By Week 5 H2H Win)
(A 7½ Win PLA would lose to AND by Division Standing due to H2H)

All Hell Breaks Loose Scenario

MNY beats FUD, PLA beats BAT, AND loses, BBA loses, RNT loses…This would result in 6 teams at 7½ wins…BAT and MNY would win their Divisions leaving 5 teams fighting for the last 3 slots…We get forced to 3rd tiebreaks in these scenarios because BBA was the only tied team to beat RNT but has a terrible Division Record due to all the ties…BBA would eliminate FUD by Division Standing as described above…AND would eliminate PLA by Division Standing due to a better Head-2-Head Record…

AND (7-5-1) .576 (1-0-1) .750
PLA (7-5-1) .576 (0-1-1) .250

Which would leave a pool of RNT, AND, and BBA…all 3 beat each other round robin…so we go to Division Record…giving the #4 Seed to Armed N Dangerous:

AND (7-5-1) .576 (1-1-0) .500 (3-2-1) .583
RNT (7-5-1) .576 (1-1-0) .500 (3-3-0) .500
BBA (6-4-3) .576 (1-1-0) .500 (1-2-3) .417

For the next slot…BBA eliminates FUD by Division Standing…PLA re-enters the field…all 3 beat each other round robin again…so we go to Division Record…giving the #5 Seed to Playground Legends:

PLA (7-5-1) .576 (1-1-0) .500 (4-1-1) .750
RNT (7-5-1) .576 (1-1-0) .500 (3-3-0) .500
BBA (6-4-3) .576 (1-1-0) .500 (1-2-3) .417

For the final slot…BBA eliminates FUD by Division Standing…and takes the #6 Seed by Week 8 Head-2-Head victory over Runs N Throses…

I think that covers every possible outcome…except for more fucking ties (and don’t even think about sending me any for X-Mas…) not even going there…

Commish

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