Statistically Speaking – 2014 2nd Season Scenario Special

Statistically Speaking

I do not know how crushed for time I will be on this shortened Holiday week…so much like last year…I am rushing out the most important part of the post…The Buccaneer Title is settled…and the other 2 Titles are down to only 2 Teams each…Only 1 of the 4 will miss the Post-Season…

Playoff Picture

TBFL Playoffs Logo

If the Playoffs started today:

#1 Seed - RNT (9-3) - Div Champion (Guaranteed #1 or #2 Seed)
#2 Seed - BAT (8-4) - Div Champion (Guaranteed Playoffs)
#3 Seed - MNY (6-6) - Div Champion (by H2H Win over HUS)
#4 Seed - PGL (7-5) - Wildcard (Guaranteed Playoffs) (H2H Wins over WAR & AND) 
#5 Seed - WAR (7-5) - Wildcard (Guaranteed Playoffs) 
#6 Seed - AND (7-5) - Wildcard (Guaranteed Playoffs)

Let’s start with the easy one…Runs N Throses defeating X-Factor locked up their 5th Buccaneer Division title…They take over the #1 Seed as the only 9 Win team…Bay Area Thrashers are the only team that can catch them and still take the top slot away…that result would mean our 1st Season without a 10 Win team since 2010…

Bay Area Thrashers has fallen to the #2 Seed at 8 Wins…The head-2-head loss to Playground Legends means this is still a 2 team race for the crown…Their Magic Number is still 1…but If Armed N Dangerous beats Thrashers…and Playground Legends beats the Grandmasters…there will be a 3-Way tie in the Storm Division at 8-5…and Playground Legends would claim their 1st Division Title since 2006 based on Division Record…(And technically be 2 Post-Season Wins away from a predicted 10 Wins this YEAR)…

PGL (8-5) .614 (4-2) .667
BAT (8-5) .614 (3-3) .500
AND (8-5) .614 (2-4) .333

No matter who gets the crown…all 3 of these teams will make the Playoffs because…only 1 7 Win Team will make it out of the Bandit Division…Money Inc and Husslers both took care of business in Week 12 to force a final ‘Playoff for the Playoffs’ in Week 13…with both teams at 6-6…their head-2-head winner will claim the Bandit Division title (If they tie…Money Inc would advance based on 1½-½ head-2-head advantage)…and the loser misses out…

Seeding Scenarios

With no Bandit teams in the Wildcard mix…the battle rages on for the #4 Seed and its Home Field advantage in Wildcard Weekend…Of the current 7 Win teams…Playground Legends is undfeated in 3 games against Warriors (Week 1) and Armed N Dangerous (Weeks 3 & 11) claiming the #4 Seed…Warriors and Armed N Dangerous did not play head-2-head this season…Warriors takes the #5 Seed by Division Record (2-3 vs 1-4)…

If the 3-Way 8-5 Storm result pans out as described above…and Warriors wins…Legends would take the title…and an 8-5 Warriors team would take the #4 Seed with their head-2-head victory over Bay Area Thrashers (Week 10) and Division Record over Armed N Dangerous…Bay Area Thrashers would take the #5 Seed by Division Record over Armed N Dangerous…

If the 3-Way 8-5 Storm result pans out as described above…and Warriors loses…Legends would take the title…and Bay Area Thrashers would take the #4 Seed by Division Record over Armed N Dangerous…Armed N Dangerous would take the #5 Seed as the only remaining 8 Win Team…and Warriors would be the #6 Seed…

Armed N Dangerous can only claim the #4 Seed by defeating Bay Area Thrashers…and having Playground Legends and Warriors both lose to stay on 7 Wins…otherwise they will be a road team for Wildcard Weekend…

Empire Cup

Empire Cup

 

HUS (6-6)
XFA (5-7) (H2H Wins over FUD and UOG)
FUD (5-7) (H2H Win over UOG)
UOG (5-7)
BBA (4-8)
HUR (3-9) (Guaranteed #6 Position)

Husslers is the only team that still has a shot at the Playoffs with a Bandit Division title (It would be their 1st Title and 1st Playoffs)…UO Grandmasters still has a say in who wins the Storm Division with their game against Playground Legends…X-Factor has head-2-head tiebreaks against every team that can reach 6 wins except Husslers…a win would guarantee them no worse than the #2 Seed and a Bye in the opening round…Hurricanes can not move past a 4 Win Bubba Army due to their Week 1 head-2-head loss and is guaranteed the #6 posiiton no matter what happens this weekend…I’ll sort out the rest of the Cup scenarios next week…

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