The 2014 TBFL Season is getting fired up…and that of course means the return of of the weekly Statistically Speaking column. Your Commish kept things running smoothly for the entire 2013 Season getting a post out every week…including special releases through the Playoffs. To try and keep the streak alive…I am warming up with a new edition of BAT-tleship…where we grade the 1st ever Back-2-Back and now 5-Time Fantasy Bowl Champion Bay Area Thrashers predictions of the year to come made just after the 2013 Draft. The original post can be found HERE…but MyFantasyLeague seems to have stopped archiving Message Board posts indefinitely…so I made a copy (with spelling and grammar corrections) HERE as well. As we did in 2012 and 2013…each prediction will be examined and then graded as either :
A *HIT*
or
A *MISS*
Here we go…
THE DRAFT
1st Round Bust Picks (players who will fail to score at least 175 points.)
LeSean McCoy – No other reason needed than the 1.05 Historical Bust Factor.
*MISS* Maybe the 1.05 pick curse has truly ended…McCoy finished at 295 points for the season…He led the league in Carries (287) and Rushing Yards (1,476)…caught 51 of his 62 Targets (82.3%)…hit 2-digit scoring with 10 Touchdowns…and took home a Player of the Week trophy in Week 11…Good enough to end as the #2 Running Back and #3 Position Player for the season…
Reggie Bush – Due to…something about career average…
*MISS* Bush finished with a Career High 215 points…just shy of 1000 Rushing Yards (974)…and just shy of 500 Receiving Yards (473)…on just shy of 50 Receptions (49)…all of which may have been reached if not for…
…with Bush there is an injury factor.
*YOU SANK MY BATTLESHIP* Bush technically only missed 2 games on the season from 4 appearances on the Injury Report…but the Week 2 injury was enough to scare yours truly into making an ill advised trade of Vincent Jackson (227 points) and Eddie Lacy (219 points) to Armed N Dangerous…who had drafted 2 of the 4 actual 1st Round Busts in Ray Rice (1.04, 154 points) and Trent Richardson (1.07, 124 points)…
Frank Gore – Due to age…the 202 points come down a bit and he flirts with the 175 milestone.
*HIT* Technically he reached 184 points…but the regular season ended with him at only 149…He never saw a 20 point game after Week 7…and after resting his Old Bones in a Week 9 Bye…he averaged only 9.7 points per game the rest of the way…hitting 1-digit scores in 3 of the last 7…
1st Round ???s
Adrian Peterson – Breaks 175 points and is not a bust…
*HIT* Peterson did drop 1.5 yards per carry from his 2,000 yard season in 2012…but he kept his streak of 7 straight seasons with 10+ Rushing Touchdowns alive…piling on the 3rd highest Rushing Yards for the season (1,266) to end as the #7 Running Back at 226 points…
…but I also predict that he is not the best pick of the 1st round. In fact, I bet he is no better than 4th!
*HIT* AP ended as the 5th highest scorer in the 1st Round…a full 70 points behind the #1 Wide Receiver (Megatron) and #1 Running Back (McCoy)…
So who beats him?
Megatron. The best WR a year ago is right at the top again.
*HIT* The Transformer finishes Back-2-Back Seasons as the top scoring Wide Receiver…
And even the presence of fellow first round pick Reggie Bush won’t slow him down.
*MISS* With Reggie in the lineup…Calvin had 48 fewer Targets…resulting in 38 fewer Receptions…for 475 fewer Receiving Yards…(85 Net Points Lost)…
Oh and there is no way he only gets 5 TDs again.
*HIT* Getting back on track to 2-digit Receiving Touchdown totals (12) gave him the 3 point cushion he needed to stay ahead of Josh Gordon…
Ray Rice – 60+ catches per year for the last 4 years…and that doesn’t change here. The TDs will be there, and Ray will be ever consistent!
*MISS* 58 Catches for Rice is close enough to keep his 5 year average intact (67.2)…but the Touchdowns were NOT there with only 4 End Zone appearances…The lowest yards per carry of his career at 3.08 left him 340 yards short of 1,000 for the season…
Doug Martin – 2nd year, catches balls, and has his 2 Pro-Bowl Guards returning.
*MISS* Martin only played 6 games before being lost to Injured Reserve…In those contests he dropped 1 full yard per carry and never reached the 17 points per game he averaged in 2012…65 Points makes him the biggest Bust of the 1st Round…
And my sleeper pick for the best 1st Rounder…Dez Bryant.
*MISS* But it was a bold prediction…Dez ends with 265 points…Good enough for the 4th highest score from the 1st Round…A.J. Green went 2 picks later and ended at 285…but if Dez is your guy…you go with him…
Worst Draft Picks (based on where the player was chosen and predictions for this season.)
McFadden…I know tons of potential, but WAY too much risk. Horrible surrounding cast, he’s always injured, better left as someone else’s problem…1st bad pick of the draft…too much talent left for him to go at pick #26.
*HIT* Rashad Jennings was the only Raider to crack the Top 100 players…McFadden was on the Injury Report 7 times…missing 6 games…and the 1 he did play he only scored 1 point costing Money Inc a Playoff slot…Martin and Wilson both proved to be worse picks ahead of McFadden…but you have to go to Ahmad Bradshaw at pick 5.09 to find the next Running Back drafted with fewer points…
Percy Harvin – I guess when you are loaded with talent you can roll the dice, but why? He is not supposed to be a factor this season for Seattle, so what help can he be for the Hurricanes? And will he even be worth a second round pick next year?
*HIT* Harvin was listed OUT for every game of the season except for Week 11 where he caught his sole Target against his old team for his only 2 points on the year…Hurricanes still let him ride the end of his roster bench for the full year…so maybe he does have plans for him in the 2nd Round…
Any rookie taken before the 10th round…
*MISS* Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard, LeVeon Bell, and Zac Stacy were all drafted within the 1st 8 rounds…and all ended up in the Top 60 position players…making each an every week starter for someone…
…not only do most rookies not pan out their first year, but you leave no keeper value for them the next season.
*HIT* For each rookie success above…there is a Tavon Austin, Montee Ball, or Cordarrelle Patterson taken too early…
Ingram and Ballard in the 6th as keepers. They are not even the main backs on their own team.
*HIT* Nothing to see here…
Christine Michael…I’m still wondering when and how will this guy get playing time…but hey he was a second round pick, so…
*HIT* Originally looked like another Hurricanes bench rider to keep Harvin company…but John cut him loose allowing RNT to grab him as a Lynch handcuff…
Matt Flynn…will this guy ever start?
*HIT* Apparently not…was cut by Warriors before Week 1 even kicked off…
Jonathan, I’m fat and lazy, Dwyer
*HIT* A bench rider for Fudgie Whales till he was cut loose in Week 9…
Draft picks I really liked:
Romo
*HIT* Better than Android, RG3, TDQIBTU, & Matty Ice all taken earlier…
Lance Moore
*MISS* 3 games missed…3 games over 10 points…under 3 Receptions per game…
Woodhead
*HIT* 198 Points in the 9th Round? Yes Please…
Sudfeld (even more now that he is on my team)
*MISS* Injured on 1st Target and never roster-ed again…
Gates
*HIT* Only started 5 times…but Thrashers won 4 of the 5 games…
Rivers
*HIT* Cam or Stafford value….only 11 rounds later…
Crabtree…now there is a keeper for next year…
Maclin, talk about a great keeper for next year…
I am giving these the Nick Bakay Tale of the Tape *PUSH* result…as they both contributed nothing for 2013…and I am not Crystal Balling 2014…yet…
Marcel Reece, cause you just know DMac is going down.
*MISS* As mentioned above, DMac missed a lot of time…but Reece did not benefit from it…
THE SEASON
Division Predictions
Buccaneers Division
Hurricanes – Still the TEAM TO BEAT!!!
*HIT* Best Record in the League…again…ultimately beaten…again…
RnT – A return to the Playoffs is possible.
*HIT* Returned to the classic 1 & Done formula for the Postseason…
Warriors – It kind of goes downhill after Megatron, but there is some talent there.
*HIT* Did win 3 of the last 4 to close out the year…
X-Factor – Just not feeling it this year.
*HIT* Dead on here – 4 for 4 in the Division!
Storm (Where Championships Are Won) Division
Bay Area Thrashers – I feel I can do better than 7-6, just scrap my way into the playoffs and win it all…then again, why break it if it isn’t broke.
*HIT* 9-4…exploded in the Semi-Finals…then scrapped through the Final…same result…
AnD – This was a tough one between UO and AnD, but one thing that AnD does is turn crap into All-Pros. If no one ever traded with Miller he would never win division championships…but people do (like me) and he does, so….
*HIT* I…uh…somehow…feel responsible for this one…
UO – Like I said, it was close. I’m thinking these two teams are no more than a game or two apart. He is always a tough in it to the wire team and he will be fighting for a playoff spot up to the last week!
*MISS* Maybe even sank your own Battleship…the greatest disaster of a record since The Empire…
PGL…Drew Brees…SOLID. Julio, going to be the best WR in football some year.
*MISS* Julio ended up being Playground’s 5th 1st Round Bust in the last 6 years…
Bandit Division
Fudgie Whales – I just love Fudgie’s Team.
*HIT* Tied for 1st in the Division…Ultimately met the same fate as BBA losing to Thrashers…
Bubba Army – A lot of solid players…not sure on the star power.
*HIT* Tied for 1st in the Division…Ultimately met the same fate as FUD losing to Thrashers…
Husslers – I don’t believe in Luck…MJD bounces back…Not a lot of depth on this team.
*MISS* Luck was the #7 QB…MJD did not bounce back…and no depth buried Husslers…
Money Inc. – I’m huge on Manning this season…but other than that, I am just not seeing it…don’t even see a shot at the playoffs.
*MISS* Money Inc. ended a Caleb Sturgis missed Field Goal away from taking Fudgie Whales Wild Card slot…They took out their frustration claiming their 2nd Empire Cup Championship…
Playoff Teams
1.) Hurricanes *HIT*
2.) Fudgie *HIT*
3.) Thrashers *HIT*
4.) RnT *HIT*
5.) UO *MISS*
6.) Bubba *HIT*
…oh and with a losing record…see below.
*MISS*
Fudgie and Hurricanes in the Championship….Hurricanes for the WIN!!!
*MISS* But damn close…
NFL SEASON PREDICTIONS…And other news and notes.
No Rookie RB finishes in the top 15 this season.
*MISS* #8 Eddie Lacy (219), #14 Giovani Bernard (194), #15 LeVeon Bell (191)…
No Rookie WR finishes in the top 20.
*MISS* But just barely…Keenan Allen snuck in at #19 (202)…
No Rookie QB finishes in the top 25.
*MISS* Geno Smith sneaks in at #21 (214)…but Mike Glennon (#26, 171) and EJ Manuel (#27, 156) were knocking on the door…
Brady still throws for 30 TDs.
*MISS* Not to be…only 25 for TDQBITU…
Gronk still catches 10 of them.
*MISS* Only 4 Touchdowns in his 7 starts for the year…
Lynch scores the most rushing TDs…I say 14!
*MISS* and *MISS* But close…Lynch (11) finished 2nd to Charles (12)…
Brees will be the best QB!!!
*MISS* Finished 2nd to Peyton…ONLY 75 points behind…
On the worst team in TBFL!!!
*MISS* Danny ended right in the middle of the pack…
Ouch…0 for 9 in that section…
Players who will not be with their team next season…
Vick (NYJ)
Gore…I’ll get it right one of these years (SF…not this year)
Nicks (IND)
Freeman (FA)
Cutler..this one hurts (CHI…eases the miss?)
Sanchez..too easy?? (PHI)
Flynn..ditto, but hey I’m sure by now I need a few hits… (GB…not easy)
Mallett (NE)
Cousins (WAS)
McFadden (OAK)
MJD (OAK…so why keep above?)
Mathews..time to move on… (SD)
Wayne (IND)
Amendola…don’t the Pats just pick up and cut guys like crazy? (NE)
Austin (CLE)
Gonzo…or will he be another Farve? (CBS)
Nick Folk…just be patient for a few more seconds..it’s coming… (NYJ)
7 for 17 there…(41.2%) but some that SHOULD have happened…
Mark Sanchez has thrown his last pass for the N. Y. Jets.
*HIT* The Sanchise’s run with the J-E-T-S resulted in the Lowest Passer Rating Index (83.5) of any QB in history to start 4 straight seasons with the same team…He never saw another snap after his pre-season shoulder injury and the Geno Smith era began…
Only one team in the Bandit Division will finish above .500 this season. Hey this has now been a trend for 6 out of the last 7 years.
*MISS* 2 Teams ABOVE .500 and 1 Team ends ON .500…
You can’t win a TBFL Championship when your division barely sends only 1 team to the playoffs.
*MISS* But this one made a very interesting study…Since we went to the 3 Division system in 1999…a Division has sent just 1 team to the Playoffs 10 times (22.2%)…The Buccaneers Division has never sent less than 2 teams to the Playoffs…The Sole Representative has made it to the Fantasy Bowl in 6 of those 10 occurrences…winning Half of them…including facing each other in the 1999 Final…
This is the season the Hurricanes finally win it all. And if he doesn’t, fuck it. I will never pick him again!
*MISS* To be seen on the picking again…
Oh and this is the year…Hurricanes finally beats me…I figure if I keep saying it, it wont happen..oh wait, maybe I just reversed jinxed myself…
*MISS* The Week 5 127-106 victory keeps BAT 5-0 against Hurricanes…
PGL over/under mark of tea bags received…10, and I go for the over cause that is a 10 loss team if I ever saw one…enjoy the hairy ones, right in the face!
*MISS* There was a 10 (and then some) loss team in the Storm Division…but it wasn’t Danny…
As always, send all spelling and grammar errors to:
www.kissmyassthistooklesstimethanayearagobutistillthoughtupthisshit.com
*PUSH* 404 Page Not Found Error…My guys over at BlueHost can fix it up for you though…
Thank you all and onto another free year (for me anyway) and great fantasy season!
*HIT* Another year…another entry fee paid by us…
You guys are what makes this league great!
*HIT* Best owners in any League anywhere…except that one guy…you know who you are…
Oh, how could I forget. A FUCKING KICKER!*%@*!^!. As a 10th round keeper?!? Are you F*@!^$%# kidding me…Nick Folk will not finish in the top 25 kickers for the season!
*MISS* Folk was the 3rd Highest scoring starting Kicker in the TBFL last year (119 points)…taking home Kicker of the Week trophies in Week 7 and in Week 9 where he helped Playground Legends beat Thrashers…The Jets were so happy with him that they followed Danny’s lead and used their own Franchise Tag to lock him up for the 2014 season…
40 HITS and 43 MISSES is a 48.2% success rate on the year…Going 0-fer on the NFL Predictions was the killer…but I’m sure Kevin will take it when the end result is another TBFL Championship…
Who else will step up with predictions this year?
Commish