Statistically Speaking – 2015 BAT-tleship

Statistically Speaking

Not a good sign that I am starting the 2015 TBFL season behind by 2 weeks…especially when I only have 6 days to go till the moved up Franchise Player Deadline (Sunday August 23rd for those not paying attention)…I managed to post every week in 2014 on schedule…and to keep things rolling along…we continue the now tradition of grading the previous year predictions.  Last year we had 4 teams participate and each will get a detailed breakdown…but we start as always with a new edition of BAT-tleship and the post Draft predictions of our perennial Fantasy Bowl participant Bay Area Thrashers…The original post can be found HERE…but since MyFantasyLeague will eventually stop archiving it…it is preserved for posterity HERE as well…As in our past posts…each prediction will be examined and then graded as either:

HitA *HIT*
or
MissA *MISS*

Here we go…

The 1st jab gets a pass since it technically appeared before the “on to the predictions…”

Miller may very well haunt RnTs Championship Dreams with [trading away Foles]
…but would have been a *MISS* as Runs N Throses ended the season becoming only the 5th team in TBFL history to claim multiple Fantasy Bowl trophies…

1st Round BUSTS!!!  Remember a bust is a player drafted in the first round who does not make the 175 point mark.

And this year….I just don’t see any!  Seriously…
Miss *MISS* But just barely…I won’t count Adrian Peterson who was lost to the 2014 season for bad parenting…and even Playground Legends managed to avoid a bust in the 1st Round for only the 2nd time since 2008 getting exactly 175 from Brandon Marshall…but Runs N Throses 1st Round keeper Bernard Giovani missed 3 games to injury to end 18 points short at 157…

But, I have to make some projections so here they go…

Arian Foster…10 healthy games, and at 17.5 points a game.
Hit *HIT* Foster did miss 3 games on the year…but including Playoffs Kevin did get 11 Healthy starts from the pick…averaging 21 points per game…

Dez Bryant…I think 200 points is possible, but 150-175 wouldn’t surprise me.
Hit *HIT* there was a long rambling here about potential Romo injuries…etc…but Dez proved to be one of the only bright spots in Bubba Army’s season ending with 284 points…

Jamal Charles… I don’t think he comes close to his totals from last year of 367 points…I see something closer to the 217 points he has averaged in his last 3 healthy seasons…I’m betting on less than 250.
Hit *HIT* that was a convoluted…very specific prediction…but it all fell in line with Charles ending at 235 points…

Sleeper Busts

Matt Forte…Doesn’t finish as a top 5 RB this season.
Miss *MISS* After 13 Weeks of Regular Season action…Forte was the #1 Running Back with 264 points…62 points better than the actual #5 Running Back…Arian Foster…

forte

Brandon Marshall…Won’t even be the best WR on his own team.
Hit*HIT* Marshall proved to be the 3rd best Wide Receiver for the Bears…175 points left him trailing both Martellus Bennett (200) and Alshon Jeffery (247)…

AP…First year he doesn’t hit double digit TDs.
Hit
*HIT* Probably not the way it was intended…but Peterson’s season being “switched” off (yeah..I went there)…after 1 game left him with 0 Touchdowns for the year…

Division Predictions

Storm –  no matter who wins this division, we will only have 1 playoff team represented this season.
Miss*MISS* BAT, PGL, & AND all made the Post-Season…

PGL – This is the year Danny gets his…
Miss
*MISS* It came down to the final week of the season…but ultimately the Week 6 loss to Thrashers 108-156 cost them the Storm Division title…

…And if not this year, than it is never going to happen!
We will hold off judging that one…

UO – Makes a playoff push.
Miss
*MISS* Eric’s team actually threw on the brakes down the stretch…losing 5 of their last 6 games…including all 3 during the Divisional Gauntlet…to finish last in the Division…

Thrasher – The defending champ doesn’t defend, and his playoff streak of 11 straight years, comes to an end.
Miss
*MISS* As stated above…the Week 6 Head-2-Head win over Playground Legends earned them their 7th Storm Division title…the consecutive Playoffs streak continues…

AND – when the first WR you pick as a started is suspended for 4 weeks, and a 5th week for a bye, well you are in trouble.
Miss
*MISS* 4th Round pick Wes Welker finished under 100 points on the season…but Miller still managed to finish over .500 and  claim the last Wildcard…

Bandits

Fudgie – Top to bottom, the best team…Only worry is RBs…YOU SHOULD HAVE TAKEN FOSTER!!!!
Hit*HIT* Technically wrong on the finish order…but Gasper’s best Running Back on the year was Alfred Morris…the 18th best Running Back and 53rd best position player on the year…Running Back trouble was so bad the Whales had to trade away Julio Jones for Frank Gore mid-season to the ultimate Division Winner Husslers…

Hussler – His fatal flaw that will keep him from stardom this year..Jay Cutler…He’s gonna get hurt.
Miss
*MISS* Cutler did not miss a game to injury in 2014…Husslers did bench him for 3 of his best weeks on the year… and still managed to claim the Bandits Division crown…

Bubba – I think he has a great season, and his WRs are solid and deep, but I just can’t pick anyone to win their division who drafts Johnny Manziel.
Miss
*MISS* Although the receivers were great…it was the lack of running game that cost the Army…it was a miserable season…only finishing a Head-2-Head win over Hurricanes out of last place…

Money Inc. – See Jamaal Charles above.  Also not sure about the Tannehill/Romo, back to back picks…
Miss
*MISS* All 3 players named produced for Money Inc who managed to just miss out on the TBFL playoffs in Week 13…ultimately claiming their 3rd Empire Cup…

Buccaneers Division

Runs N Throses – Had the best keepers going in, made a nice draft day trade.  He is primed for a big year.
Hit*HIT* The perennial “1 and Done” playoff contender held it together to finsih as the #1 Seed and win the 2014 TBFL Fantasy Bowl…

Hurricanes – Team Big Wind’s window may slowly be closing.  The keepers were not as deep and no picks till the third round may hurt him….But if some of these guys bounce back…he will be in the mix as always.
Hit
*HIT* Hurricanes ran off an early 8 game losing streak…finishing dead last in the league with only 3 wins…but was on fire in the final weeks…leading all teams in scoring and claiming 2 Team of the Week titles.

2014-wks9_12

Warriors – Given this Riley brother the edge and he is a sleeper to win the Division Title… if only Gordon wasn’t an idiot!!
Miss*MISS* The newly engaged Riley (Congrats again!) was the correct sibling choice…but still trailed for the Division Title by 3 games + tiebreakers…Gordon definitely an idiot…

X-Factor – Just like anyone else, he too can win this division.
Miss
*MISS* Although Josh did manage to split his Buccaneers Division Games…he was only 1-6 on the year in games against teams that ultimately made the playoffs…not good enough to win any Division…

TBFL Playoff Teams
Hit1.) RnT
Hit2.) Playground Legends
Miss3.) Fudgie Whales
Miss4.) Hurricanes
Hit5.) Warriors
Miss6.) X-Factor

Draft picks/Keepers I really liked

Julio Jones…in other leagues Julio at 9 may have been a bit high, but not here…still crying over this one!
Hit *HIT* Megatron, AJ Green, and Brandon Marshall all selected ahead of Julio…and all finished behind him on the year…only Jordy Nelson drafted behind him finished ahead…

Eddie Lacy- Should be a huge year for him…Will be the best pick in the first round!!!…But he won’t be enough for Miller to make the playoffs.
Miss*MISS* Lacy did have a huge year…but 246 points was only good enough for 5th best pick in the 1st round…it was enough however to carry Miller into the Playoffs.

lacy

Matt Ryan/Tom Brady..how these guys were both ranked behind players like RGIII and Kaepernick and even Newton I don’t know.  I bet they both finish better than these other guys…
Hit
*HIT* Ryan (321) and Brady (317) finished right next to each other…both ahead of Newton (264), Kaepernick (261), and RG3 (83)…

…and at least one makes the top 5 QB list.
Miss *MISS* Ryan and Brady finished as the #7 and #8 Quarterbacks on the season.

Wes Welker- Because the next pick (by me) was Wayne and I am glad to not have a concussion blown, drug user on my team…
Hit*HIT* Reggie Wayne finished with 136 points…40 pts better than Wes Welker…

CJ YES WAY!!!  He wasn’t all bad a year ago, and now he is with Mr Ground and Pound, so he has a nice season. He may lose some carries, but he finishes better than a year ago.
Miss 
*MISS* Johnson quickly became CJ-No-Play on the Bubba Army bench…107 fewer carries…307 fewer yards…and 1..count ‘em…1 Touchdown on the year…

Thomas/Graham – Great value.  Outscores anyone else in their given rounds..no brainers..nuff said!
Miss
*MISS* but not wildly…eliminating Quarterbacks…Graham (213) was still outscored by DeMarco Murray (323) in the 3rd Round…but Mike Wallace (205) was similar value available 2 rounds later…Julius Thomas (159) was outscored in the 12th Round by Jeremy Maclin (260)…but Odell Beckham (254) went in Round 13…While Jarvis Landry (172) and Travis Kelce (157) went in Round 14…

Randall Cobb – If he stays healthy he will help Fudgie to that Division Title.
Hit *HIT* No Division Title for the Whales…but 261 points from Cobb in Round 8 matches Gronk (260)…and is better than any other Drafted (non-keeper) WR outside the 1st Round…

Doug Baldwin – Hearing great things out of camp…should take over for Tate, will be even better when Harvin goes down.
Hit 
*HIT* but again not a bullseye…153 points in Round 10 trails Keenan Allen (171), matches Kenny Stills (154) and is ahead of keepers Riley Cooper (115) and Cecil Shorts (99)…

Cody Latimer – Will only do great things if given the chance…Manning can make anyone great!
Miss
*MISS* Played in 8 Games…only got 4 Targets…and 2 Receptions…

Shane Vereen – Gonna be a top ten back this year!!!
Miss 
*MISS* Vereen’s 150 points left him as the #20 Running Back this year…37 points outside Jeremy Hill (187) and the Top-10…

Alshon Jeffery – Could be the Bears best WR this year, but Cutlers history with Marshall will keep him from being the best.
Hit 
*HIT* the 2nd half of this went against your own Marshall prediction in Round 1 above..so I’ll just give you the credit for naming Jeffery as the #1 Bears Wide Receiver…

Bryce Brown..will be the starter next year.
Miss 
*MISS* Shady and Fred Jackson are both ahead of Brown for the Bills…

Dennis Pitta – Gonna bounce back this year!
Miss 
 *MISS* easy to call with him being on IR for most of 2014…but he did have 3 starts…matching his 2013 starts…2013 was still more productive with 4 more catches…44 more yards…and 1 more Touchdown…

pitta

Players/picks I don’t like

Any rookie drafted before the 8th-10th rounds.
Cooks should be okay..I was probably going to take a chance on him myself.
Miss 
*MISS* Including Cooks…there were 5 rookies drafted before the 8th round…Kelvin Benjamin (217) finished as the #16 Wide Receiver on the year…with Sammy Watkins at #30 (182)…and Cooks averaged 13.3 per game before going on IR…good enough for the #27 Wide Receiver…All 3 ending as every week starters…Sankey (84) and Hyde (65) in the 7th were busts…

Here are players taken after these rookies that should have been drafted first.
MissDoug Baldwin  Finished as Wide Receiver #49…
HitMartellus Bennett  Behind Kelvin…but better than Watkins or Cooks…
MissAndy Dalton  Ended as Quarterback #19…not an every week start…
HitDeAndre Hopkins  Finished ahead of all 5 of the above…
HitAnquan Boldin  Behind Kelvin…but better than Watkins or Cooks…
MissMJD  Finished with only 23 points…well behind both the rookie backs…

Other bad picks…

Any wife beaters in the third round coming off a bad year.
Hit 
*HIT* I did not even remember that Rice was drafted…

Wes Concussion Welker – Misses at least 7 games this year.
Hit
*HIT* He only missed 2 games to Suspension…but never really showed up in the ones he did play…averaging just 3 catches for 33 yards a game…

Larry Fitzgerald – Cause I wanted him.
Hit
*HIT* Not dealing with the selfish angle…Fitz slowed down in 2014 with only 144 points…as we pointed out above…a point total that could have been drafted well outside the 2nd round where he went…

D-Jax- Just don’t think he does it again.
Hit 
*HIT* 2013 was a Career High year for DeSean Jackson and would be hard to duplicate…but the #29 Wide Receiver was surpassed by 4 Rookies and players taken well outside the 2nd Round…

Ryan Tannehill kept at pick 4.12..followed by Tony Romo at pick 5.01..by the same team…Romo/Cam, Cam/RGIII, Romo/RGIII and hell throw in Dalton (why doesn’t anyone like this guy?), all would have been better plays.
Miss*MISS* Tannehill (305) was the #9 scoring Quarterback…followed by Romo (285) at #13, Newton (264) at #16, Dalton (247) at #19, and RG3 (83) at #38…

Jason Witten..Apparently he only plays well at home..so at least I can get 8 games out of him.
Hit*HIT* I think…he did average 10.0 points per game at home vs 9.85 points per game on the road…but you cut him after 5 games which would be a MISS…but this was for Bad Picks…and he was…

Trent Richardson and that 2.3 yards per carry in the preseason.
Hit
*HIT* Barely cracked 100 points on the year…and only managed 2.76 yards per carry in the 2 starts he made for Fudgie Whales…

Christine Michael – Another 3rd stringer..lots of talent, but no focus.
Hit
*HIT* 17 points in the 8th round…Never came off the RNT bench…

Alfred Blue – I have no idea who will get the touches when Foster goes down.
Hit
*HIT* Played all 16 games…Starting 3…but there were better picks to be had in the late rounds…

Kenjon Barner – hum…a guy buried so far down the depth chart you couldn’t see him with a magnifying glass.
Hit
*HIT* 0 Games…0 Yards…0 Points…

NFL Players that will not be on their teams next year:
HitCJ Spiller  Off to New Orleans…
MissFred Jackson  Still in Buffalo…
HitStevan Ridley  NE got ‘Rid’ of him to the J-E-T-S…
HitFrank Gore  Moved on for better Luck…
HitAndre Johnson  Wants some Luck of his own…
MissMarques Colston  The Old Man stays in New Orleans…
HitWes Welker  1st year toward his HOF candidacy…
(some high draft picks here)
HitReggie Wayne  1st year toward his HOF candidacy…
MissMarshawn Lynch  Beast Mode stays put…
HitDarren McFadden  Left Oakland for Jerry Land…
HitReggie Bush  Gonna split carries with Kaepernick…
MissArian Foster  Pulling groins in Texas…

A solid 8-4 in that section with some high profile players…

Rookie Projections

No rookie RB will finish in the top 10
Miss
*MISS* Jeremy Hill sneaks in at #10…

No rookie WR will finish in the top 15
Miss
*MISS* Odell Beckham finishes #11 and Mike Evans finishes #15…Kelvin Benjamin just misses at #16…

No rookie QB will finish in the top 20
Miss
*MISS* Just burned again as Derek Carr finishes at #20…

Hurricanes will NOT win the TBFL Championship….see last year’s predictions.
Hit*HIT* Dead Last…

Hurricanes will beat me this year…gotta happen some time.
Miss 
*MISS* Now 6-0 against Hurricanes…

PGL will not get 10 Tea Bags (apparently this is hard to do) but will make the playoffs.
Hit*HIT* Ended with only 8 Wins…It is hard…and he did make the Playoffs…

Well that’s it.  A bit longer than I thought it would be…
…Yes very long this year…

…as always this is all BULLSHIT (except the fuck buddy part) and is just meant to be fun.

39 Hits…36 Misses… 52% Success rate…

More to come…

Commish

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