Keeping up with the weekly posts with a game every Thursday proved disastrous for your Commish in 2015…but I’ve tried to consolidate some record book and special stats behind the scenes to speed things up this season….We will see how it goes…for now we continue the tradition of BAT-tleship…grading pre-season prediction posts…and as always we start with the team who has now been to 6 straight Fantasy Bowls…Bay Area Thrashers…the original post can be found HERE…but since MyFantasyLeague will eventually stop archiving it…it is preserved for posterity HERE as well…As in our past posts…each prediction will be examined and then graded as either:
A *HIT*
or
A *MISS*
Here we go…
1st Round Busts!!! Remember, a bust is a player drafted in the 1st round who does not make the 175 point mark….BUT a new twist this year. QBs are sometimes drafted in the first round and 175 is too low a mark for them, so the mark for them will be….350 points. In the last two years, only 5 QBs have hit this mark, but if you are picking a QB in the first round…you better be getting your money’s worth.
Arian Foster …he is as injury prone as Miller is likely to stand up from sitting in a Lazy Boy and breaking a bone in his foot or riding a jet ski into a stationary boat (yes these events actually did happen…the latter on 9/11….YES that 9/11!!!) Regardless if he only misses 2-3 games with his current injury, there is NO way he doesn’t miss more time the rest of the season…
*HIT* 2nd year in a row being right on Foster’s outcome…Hurricanes got 3 solid starts in Weeks 5-7 before Foster was done for the year with 74 points…the lowest total in the 1st Round…
Demarco Murray …is he as jinxed as O’Dell is for being on the Madden cover…because he was drafted by Playground “Tea Bag” Legends who is the TBFL All-Time Record holder for 1st Round Busts…Look it up!!! Or it could be the whole number of touches he had a year ago…..or it could be the 3-4 headed monster of RBs the Eagles have who will eat into his carries. Either way, he doesn’t hit 175.
*HIT* But it was close…Murray was the #7 Running Back in the TBFL with 140 Points after Week 11…but he finished the Regular Season with a string of 1-Digit finishes to end at 163 points…
Jamaal Charles …Don’t know why exactly. Call it a gut feeling.
*HIT* It’s a good gut…After racking up 90 points in only 4 games and sitting as the 2nd best Running Back…Charles went down in Game 5 to a season ending non-contact injury…ending the year at only 98 points…
Matt Forte …He hits 175 (barely), but being taken as high as he was, I think he is expecting 80-100 catches, and that is not going to happen here. This is not a Marc Tressman offense and before Tressman, Forte’s highest catch total was 64…I think the over under this year is 60 and I’m going for the under.
*HIT* Forte just managed to reach 185 points on the year…
and
*HIT* He only managed 41 Receptions…the lowest total of his entire 8 year career…
That is a perfect run on Round 1…Although why make a new rule for the QB…and then not go after the QB?…for the record…with 6 season ending injuries only 5 Picks in the 1st Round managed to avoid the bust tag:
2nd Round Busts….I think I did this a couple of years ago….and with all the chatter about how weak this draft was, I felt the need to dip down a bit. The mark for 2nd round busts will be 150 for position players and 325 for QBs
Matt Ryan…always thought of as a top QB…but is he?…Only twice in the last two years has Ryan hit the 30 point mark…TWICE!…Rarely misses a game, but rarely is elite…With Manning, Brees and Wilson all on the board…this was a head scratcher.
*HIT* Ryan finished as QB19 with 268 points on the season…and only managed to reach 25 points in 2 games…His 17.9 PPG average was only good enough for a tie for the QB26 rank with Brian Hoyer…who ultimately lost his job to Brock Osweiler who only averaged 17.7…
Romo…I think he hits the mark, and thus is not a bust, but once again…you could have had Manning and Wilson. He was a keeper, and its hard to predict who would have been there…but the odds were good you would have gotten one of them…
*MISS* Our 1st Miss so far…Romo met the same fate as Money Inc’s 1st Round Pick with a season ending injury….appearing in only 4 Games for 55 Points…Wilson (353) was the better pick here…but Peyton ended as QB32 and a bust worthy 124 points for his final season…
Alfred Morris…Very solid, not flashy…but that whole offense is a mess. The line sucks, QB position is a joke, WRs are over rated, down to one TE, oh and this Jones kid is for real. It’s a contract year for Morris, but he doesn’t cash in like he will want too.
*HIT* That line did suck…Morris actually had 30 more touches on the year than that Jones Kid (193 to 163) but ended with almost 30 fewer Fantasy Points (107 to 79)…they combined for just barely not a bust…
McCoy I hope I am wrong, and its hard to argue a first round talent who slips to the 2nd cause of a preseason injury…I think he gets his, and the shocking release of Fred Jackson shows me that the Bills think he will be ready to go Week 1. But still…wouldn’t shock me if he busts!
*MISS* McCoy had only 2 1-Digit games all season…both of which he left with an injury…but finished at 171 points…Good enough to avoid the Round 2 Tag…and outscored 7 players in the 1st Round…
Bold Prediction….Brees, Manning, Wilson all outscore Romo/Ryan
*MISS* As mentioned above…only Peyton’s Farewell Tour finished below Ryan’s pedestrian season…
Division Predictions
Storm
Bay Area Thrashers…(You can go read the long explanations…)
*HIT* Essentially correct on all the player breakdowns and how they would need to pan out to take down the division in the final week of the Regular Season…
Bold Prediction Jonathan Stewart plays 12 games this year.
*HIT* Stewart had at least 10 carries in 13 straight games before going down in Week 14…
UO Grandmasters…
*HIT* Tannehill finished as QB17…but Freeman broke out of his time share situation to lead all Running Backs for the season…locking up the #2 position in the final week of the Regular Season…
Bold Prediction Jordan Cameron is a top 5 TE this season.
*MISS* Cameron was wasted on the Dolphins roster…He had at least 1 catch in every game last year…but still finished as TE28 with only 77 points…
Playground Legends…
*MISS* Legends hit the Storm Division cellar in Week 3 and never manged to climb out of it…But the rest of the team write up was dead on…
Bold Prediction Matt Jones outscores Alfred Morris
*HIT* As covered above…107 to 79…
Armed N Dangerous…
*MISS* AND was 3-1 and not 1-3 after 4 Weeks…they actually had the chance to snatch the Division Title away in Week 13…but a final loss at home to UO Grandmasters took it away…
Bold Prediction Manning finishes outside the Top 10 this season
*HIT* as mentioned above…and outside the Top 20…and outside the Top 30…
Buccaneers Division
Runs and Throwses…(Spelled wrong on purpose?)
*MISS* Throser actually hit the Buccaneer Division cellar in Week 3…clawed into a Division leading tie in Week 8…but was then out matched by X-Factor for the rest of the season…ultimately having to play a “WIN AND IN” with Warriors to claim the last playoff slot…
Bold Prediction Gordon will be a BUST!!! Lets say for this purpose..less than 150 points!
*HIT* 217 touches seems like a good amount…but the result was 10 1-Digit outings and 0 Touchdowns on the year for the highly touted Rookie…ending on only 101 Points…
Hurricanes…
*MISS* Week 3 was the 1 time all season that Hurricanes did not sit in last place of the Buccaneers Division…
Bold Prediction CJ will not be the starting RB for Denver by the end of the year.
*HIT* With 10 1-Digit outings on the year…Ronnie Hillman replaced CJ as the starter for Super Bowl 50…but he is the clear cut starter again for 2016?…
X-Factor…
*MISS* Predicted as no better than 3rd Place carrying all the suspended dead weight…Riley the Junior finished as the year’s only 10 Game Winner and the #1 Seed in the 2015 Playoffs…
Bold Prediction Hyde will be a top 10 RB this season!
*MISS* Hyde started hot with a 31 point explosion in Week 1…but then managed only 46 points over the next 6 Games before a season ending injury…ultimately finishing as RB57…
Warriors…
*MISS* Riley the Elder never fell below the .500 mark on the year…ultimately losing the “WIN AND IN” battle with Throser in Week 13 to finish as the #1 Seed in the 2015 Empire Cup…
Bold Prediction: Tyler Lockett will be an All-Pro as a rookie…but as a return specialist. He doesn’t catch 35 balls this season.
*HIT* Lockett was an AP 2015 All-Pro Selection as a Kick Returner…
*MISS*…but he came on as WR35 over the last 8 Weeks of the season…finishing with 49 catches and 6 Receiving Touchdowns on the year…
Bandit Divison
Fudgie Whales…
*MISS* With such an accurate negative player preview…I’m not sure how Gasper was predicted for 1st Place…He did share a piece of the Division lead for 4 weeks (Weeks 3-7)…but then fell into 3rd Place were he remained the rest of the year…
Bold Prediction Jimmy Graham doesn’t catch 10+ TDs
*HIT* Graham was not the darling target in Seattle that he was in New Orleans…he got his 2nd Touchdown in Week 3…and that was it…8 more weeks of futility before being lost to injury in Week 12…
Money Inc…
*MISS* Again with the accurate negative personnel review…not sure how Tim predicted out for 2nd Place…The Money Men did suffer the predicted injuries to all 3 Top Draft picks and broke a 14 year old TBFL Record with 6 Chump Scores on the season (Previously 5, 2001 Warriors)…3 of which came against the Team of the Week (Weeks 2, 4, & 8)…
Bold Prediction Andre Williams becomes the starter by week 8.
*MISS* Andre Williams never started for the G-Men…or the Money Men…He did sit on the Money Inc bench thru Week 8 before finally being cut loose into the Free Agent Pool…
Husslers…
*HIT* As predicted was possible…Husslers did finish 2nd in the Division after holding a piece of the lead in every standing from Week 1 thru 12 (well except Week 5)…
Bold Prediction Jarvis Landry becomes a borderline top 15 WR this year.
*HIT*Not sure what this had to do with Husslers as Landry was a Legends Franchise Player all year…but he quietly(?) finished as WR10 with 246 points on the season…
Bubba Army…
*MISS* The dissed Receiver Corp posted 3 of the Top 8 PPG performances on the year…and proved to be the Army’s saving grace as they bookended the season with Team of the Week awards…and claimed their 5th Bandit Division Crown…
Still the BEST COMMISH EVER!!!
*HIT* Solid way to up your average…
Bold Prediction Julio Jones is not a top 5 WR this year.
*MISS* Julio finished as Position Player #1 with 345 points…5 Points better than WR2 Antonio Brown…55 points better than teammate and RB1 Devonta Freeman…and an average of 25 points better than QBs 6-12 on the year…
Playoff Teams
1.) RNT *HIT*
2.) BAT *HIT*
3.) FUD *MISS*
4.) HUR *MISS*
5.) XFA *HIT*
6.) UOG *HIT*
A solid 4 for 6 there even if the order was wrong…and nailed the Fantasy Bowl finalists with the 1st 2 Picks…
Draft Picks/Keepers I really Like
Sam Bradford – Monster season if he stays healthy
*MISS* Bradford played all year for the Flightless Eagles…but managed to finish as QB31 with only 16.8 PPG…
Matt Jones…Morris will not be a Redskin next year…Jones will be the man…
*HIT* Right on both counts…Jones stole the job and sent Morris packing for the backup job in Dallas…
Brandon Coleman…yeah I know..he’s mine..just hoping is a breakout this year…
*MISS* Did not breakout…sat unplayed on the Thrashers bench thru Week 6 before being cut loose…
Green-Beckham…IDK…just like his potential…Hurricanes is a great drafter…it works
*MISS* Hurricanes does like to fill other teams rosters with his great draft picks…Green-Beckham had 2 flashes of his potential at the end of the season…but finished as WR87…
Witten…8th round..8 games of production each of the last 2 years…hey if AnD picks the right games this will be a great pick…if he has to start each week…well…
*MISS* Only 5 games resulted in 2-Digit outcomes…0 of them after Week 9…and 2 of them on the Road…
Luck…Could be all Hurricanes needs for his 1st TBFL Championship
*MISS* Even with the injury Luck finished as QB9 with 22.4 PPG…a pace that could have had him finish as QB4 with a projected 358 points on the year…but as mentioned above…there were plenty of other factors keeping Hurricanes in the Division basement…
Cooks…Some people (Miller) doubted this keeper selection..I don’t…gonna be a mini Brown
*HIT* Cooks finished as WR13…matched Antonio Brown’s 9 Touchdowns on the year…and finished with more Points…Receptions…Yards…& Touchdowns than any WR drafted by Miller…finishing only 2nd in PPG to Steve Smith…
Draft Picks/Keepers I really don’t like…
Matt Ryan…See above
*UH UH* No freebies by using the same 1 twice…
Gordon/Gurley….Gordon is gonna be another Wisconsin RB BUST, and Gurley will be good, but probably not this season…what can I say, I panicked and am preying for a strong second half showing…
*HIT* Gordon was a bust in the 4th Round…and Gurley was good this season…with a strong 2nd Half showing…
Yeldon..what can I say another rookie RB, playing for Jax..not really that great in college…
*HIT* 145 points left Yeldon as RB23 on the year…production easily matched by guys taken 3 Rounds later…
Devante Parker/Devin Funches….reaches…both!
*HIT* Parker played in only 7 Games last year…totaling 21 Catches…Funches played in every game for the Panthers…and still only totaled 24 catches…they finish as WR109 and WR119 on the year…
Reggie Bush….just a feeling he is done…
*HIT* Bush got hurt on his 2nd carry of the year…and never really recovered just making spot appearances…
Players I Really Wanted
Bradon Coleman – Leads Saints in TD receptions
*MISS* How do you name Cooks the Mini-Brown and then Pick Coleman to lead in TDs?…He did get 2…on only 25 Receptions…and he was targeted in every game…
Foster – Gonna make a difference more weeks than people think Averages 15 points per game that he plays
*HIT* I don’t know how many weeks people thought he would play…but he did average 18.5 PPG for the 4 game stretch he did play before getting hurt…
Doug Martin – looking at a solid preseason, something to prove, easy schedule – Top 15 RB
*HIT* Finished RB6 in Points (208)…but RB2 in Rushing Yards (1,354)…only behind Adrian Peterson…
Carlos Hyde – Just remember them Buckeye days…he passes the Thrasher eye test. Top 10 RB
*UH UH* We made this same prediction in X-Factor’s profile (it was a *MISS*)
Cobb – Only true trusted WR Rodgers has left…he’s gonna get a ton of targets – Top 5 WR
*MISS* He was WR21 in Targets (121) but not very efficient in producing with them…falling to WR30 in Points Scored (190)…and WR38 in PPG (12.7)…
Brady…gonna say “Deflate This” to the whole league this year…Top 5 QB
*HIT* Pushed his sentence off for the year and ended up as QB2 with 383 Points…Led all QBs in Passing Yards with 4,636…
Andre Johnson – Finally has a QB – Scores 10 TDs
*MISS* Targeted in every game of the season…Andre still had “No Luck”…scoring 3 Touchdowns on only 37 Receptions…
Sam Bradford – plays 10 games.
*HIT* Bradford managed to stay upright for 13 games…
Martellus Bennett – Healthy, trusted, someone has to catch Jays non-interceptions – Top 5 TE
*MISS* No matter how I stat it up…TE22 in Receiving Yards (439)…TE20 in Points (109)…TE19 in Touchdowns (3)…TE14 in PPG (9.9)…TE12 in Receptions (53)…and TE10 in Targets (80)…
Tannehill…all the right statistics have been trending up each of his first three years…Top 10 QB
*MISS* Even with all the injuries to other Top Passers…and Tannehill starting every game for the Dolphins…he still finished as QB17 at 275 Points…or QB25 with only 18.3 PPG…
Hill…gonna be a beast – Top 5 RB
*MISS* Jeremy Hill did finish tied as RB4 with 10 Rushing Touchdowns…but his 3.37 Yards per Carry average left him as RB22 with only 145 points…
Hopkins…just looks the part – Top 10 WR
*HIT* Looks were not deceiving…Hopkins finished as WR4 with 307 Points and also 20.5 PPG…He tied as WR6 with 11 Receiving Touchdowns…and was WR3 with 1,432 total Receiving Yards…
Houston Texas D…what can I say..in Watt we trust. Top 5 D
*MISS* The Texans ended the year tied with the Jets Defense for DEF12 with 110 points…
Stay away….stay away…Baby, just stay away in EVERY League
Brandon Marshall – Gonna find out…Jay really wasn’t that bad under 60, 800, 8 for the year
*MISS* Marshall ended the year as WR3 just edging out Deandre Hopkins with 308 Points…
Murray – Workload Issues – Doesn’t break 1000 yards rushing
*HIT* …but…we did Murray…up in the Busts Section…well I guess this is a different prediction…Through 11 games he was on pace…But in Weeks 12-16 Murray averaged only 2.95 Yards Per Carry to end the year at 630 yards…
Megatron – Targets, Receptions, Yards..down 3 years in a row…Make it 4!
*MISS* Targets up from 128 to 149…Receptions up from 71 to 88…Yards up from 1,077 to 1,214…and Touchdowns up from 8 to 9…Calvin was WR8 through 13 Weeks of the TBFL Regular Season…but did tank it for the TBFL Playoffs…
Ryan – 2 30 pt games in 2 years..can’t say it enough make it 3 in 3…TOTAL!
*UH UH* We definitely already covered this one…
Cooper – Should be solid…just going too early – Best rookie WR
*HIT* Solid…Best Rookie…so why were we Staying Away from him?…Finished as WR19 (202 Points)…good enough to be an every week starter in TBFL play…
Jeffrey – Would have kept him if I had him, just seems to much injury stuff too early. Not a top 10 WR..being drafted like one
*HIT* Alshon did miss 6 games on the year finishing as WR49 with 155 Points…but for the games he did make he did finish as WR12 with 17.2 PPG…Projected as 275 over a full season would have been WR7…
D-Jax….just not a fan… Worst season since 2012
*HIT* Just like Jeffrey…Jackson missed 6 games on the year…and finished with Career Lows in Targets (49)…Receptions (30)…and Receiving Yards (528)…
Manning…Miller is happy to have him in 2 leagues, I am happy to have him in none. Worst season since 2012
*HIT* Worst Season…in his career…I mean it was a 9-to-17 TD-to-INT ratio…those are worse than Blaine Gabbert numbers…
Ivory – Says he has been working on catching balls this offseason..if only he had someone throwing to him
*MISS* Chris Ivory finished the season as RB11 with 183 Points…Including averaging 2 Receptions a game for the 15 he played…
NFL Players that will not be on their current teams next year
Morris – Contract year..Jones gonna show him the door…
Manning (Peyton) – I just feel it is over…a moment of silence…
Colston – Dude had to take a HUGE pay cut just to hang around this year
Williams, D – One year rental here
Marshall – REALLY gonna miss Jay this year…will talk himself out of NY
Lynch – Keeps talking this is his last year…but he said that last year too…
V-Jax -$10 Million is too big a hit for a rebuilding Bucs team
Doug Martin – Contract year
Chris Ivory – Contact year
Rashad Jennings – wont even be the starter in a few weeks
Anquan Boldin – a true warrior
Joique Bell – The writing is on the wall
Matt Forte – Hoping I am wrong
Darren McFadden – Too Easy?
Darren Sproles – Just not explosive enough for Chip
LaGarrette Blount – Won’t last the season
Michael Crabtree – One year rental
D-Jax – Maybe it’s his attitude…
8-10 this year…but nailed 2 of the Big 3 Retirees…only missing Megatron…
Players who should be gone..but will stay
Jay Cutler – By keeping him this year..they guaranteed his contract next year…plus he will surprise.
Tre Mason – A guy named Gurley, gonna be Da Man…but its a two RB world
Mark Ingram – Why does everyone but me love this guy?
Larry Fitzgerald – Owed to much…loved in Arizona even more…
Mike Wallace – All the dude can do is run a steak route…Teddy can’t throw one…
Victor Cruz – Stop me if you heard this one…Cruz is hurt again…
Robert Griffin III – Currently sitting as a very expensive back-up, with lots of guaranteed money
Andre Ellington – David Johnson and Chris Johnson were brought in for a reason…but he sticks one more year
6-1 there…nice…
Rookie Projections…I bumped these a little…
No rookie RB will finish in the top 12
*MISS* Both Todd Gurley (RB7) and David Johnson (RB9) had an explosive 2nd Half to the 2015 Season finishing inside the Top 10…
No Rookie WR will finish in the top 18
*HIT* We already stated it above…Amari Cooper was the Top Rookie Receiver ending 1 spot away as WR19…the next closest were Stefan Diggs (WR43) and Tyler Lockett (WR44)…
No rookie QB will finish in the top 15
*MISS* Jameis Winston piled up 299 Points…ending as the Top Rookie Signal Caller 1 spot ahead of the mark as QB14…Marcus Mariota finished out as QB22 with 243 Points…
Hurricanes will win the TBFL Championship…gotta win sometime
*MISS* Sometime has still yet to come….0 for 8…
Hurricanes will beat me this year….gotta keep trying
*MISS* That time has yet to come too….also 0 for 8…
PLG will be Tea Bagged 10 times this season. I assume it is as hard to lose ten games as win…but hey…Tea Bags for everyone!!!
*MISS* The Legends went 3-0 against *sigh* The Bandit Division… destroyed X-Factor by 76 points in Week 5…then upset Armed N Dangerous during the Gauntlet run to stay at only 8 Tea Bags…As for how hard is it to LOSE 10 games in a Season….more on that later…
I will score over the 52% rate that I scored last season.
After thought prediction….After looking over my predictions…No way I finish above 50%
*????* So I guess those 2 cancel each other out?…
Actual results 54 Hits…50 Misses…51.9…fuck it …round it up to 52%…
Commish